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Updated 11/20/2009  
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US-FORSTPAPR
DJ FOREST PRODUCTS & PAPER INDEX
Weekly Commentary

Our system posted BUY-IF . The previous SELL recommendation that was confirmed was made on 10.30.2009 (21) days ago, when the index value was 102.1 . Since then US-FORSTPAPR has gained 8.21% .

The BUY-IF alert is still valid. A confirmation was denied, but the pattern is not rejected yet since the past week was not a long black candlestick one. The market is currently testing your patience. Continue to do your homework by digesting all available information around.

The final judgment about the evolving pattern waits for the second week. Either the alert will be confirmed by one of the valid confirmation criteria or the bullish alert will be void and null. It will also be seen if we erred badly in the previous SELL signal. So a warning is in order. A confirmation in the next session means that the signal failed. This failure amounts to missing a significant bullish opportunity. You can, however, still ride on a back wagon of the bullish train by following the guidelines below.

We are posting daily the current confirmation status, but It is still your duty to check the confirmation criteria. Reminding briefly; a white candlestick with an upward gap, a white candlestick closing above previous week's close or a long white candlestick with a big downward gap is sufficient to confirm the BUY-IF alert though with a one week delay. Go long in any of these cases by respecting the benchmarks. In any other case, simply ignore the BUY-IF alert. This second week is the last chance we allow for confirmation. A confirmation failure renders the assumed bullish pattern totally invalid and starts the process of searching for a new pattern.

Do not consider any new short positions given the bullish alert and the recent bullish momentum. Short sellers must cover their positions to prevent further losses, especially if the market confirms the BUY-IF signal, in which case we owe you an apology about the previous SELL signal.

Data provided by:  End of Day Data

 
BUY-IF
110.50
+0.2300 +0.21%
Candlestick Analysis
This Week's Patterns: Black Spinning Top
Candlestick Pattern


This week a Black Spinning Top was formed. This represents complete indecision between the bulls and the bears.
For more about this candlestick click here.


 
 
Index Value
Week's Close 110.50
Previous Weekly Close 110.27
Previous Weekly Open 106.16
Change +0.2300
% Change +0.21%
Volume 9,089,400
 
Index Activity
Week's Open 111.18
Week's High 114.33
Week's Low 109.04
20-Week Close M.A. 92.193
50-Week Close M.A. 64.830
20-Week Volume M.A. 11,786,555
 

Two-Year Signal History
Week of          Price   Signal $100
Became
10.30.09 102.12    Sell 579
10.16.09 100.62    Buy 570
09.25.09 98.940    Sell 570
06.05.09 58.780    Buy 339
05.15.09 61.720    Sell 339
03.20.09 26.680    Buy 146
01.09.09 56.000    Sell 146
12.12.08 51.050    Buy 133
08.22.08 135.36    Sell 133
07.25.08 110.28    Buy 109
06.06.08 136.60    Sell 109
05.16.08 131.82    Buy 105
04.25.08 140.71    Sell 105
03.28.08 135.23    Buy 101
02.22.08 151.04    Sell 101
02.01.08 150.19    Buy 100
12.28.07 166.38    Sell 100
12.07.07 165.09    Buy 100
11.23.07 162.90    Sell 100
11.02.07 171.60    Buy 105
10.19.07 173.06    Sell 105
08.31.07 165.11    Buy 100



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