Our system posted a SELL-IF today. The previous BUY recommendation was issued on 11.25.2009 (2) days ago, when the index value was 1,106.5. Since then SP500 has fallen -1.79% .

A bearish pattern has developed and a SELL-IF alert is issued today. You will see if we erred slightly in our previous BUY signal. A confirmation in the next session will show that we have underestimated the bearish power of the market. You may realize a small loss but prevent a bigger one if you are following our guidelines. The task is now to confirm the validity of this bearish pattern. We ask your effort and time. A good starting point is to keep an eye on after-hours trading and futures trading to get preliminary hints about market direction. Related news, events, economic data, and the outlook of the world markets must be closely followed prior to confirmation session.

There are three possible cases of bearish confirmation. You have to follow the session closely to see if these cases will hold or not.

The market opens with a downward gap, signaling a bearish sentiment in the first case. Your benchmark will be the opening price. If the prices stay below the benchmark, sell your shares. Any black candlestick with a downward gap is a valid bearish confirmation criterion.

In the second case, the market opens at a level, equal to or above the previous day’s close. The benchmark is that closing price. If prices during the session stay below the benchmark, sell your shares. Any black candlestick closing below the previous day’s close is the second confirmation criterion.

If, however, in both cases, the prices during the session start going over the benchmark avoid selling.

The third case of confirmation is rarely observed. The market opens with a big upward gap suggesting a very bullish day, and the day ends with a black candlestick, but still closing above the previous day’s close. Such a day satisfies the third confirmation criterion and the closing price of the black candlestick is the benchmark.

If one of the three confirmation criteria is not fulfilled, or in case of a white candlestick or a doji on the confirmation day, the SELL-IF alert remains valid, however, without confirmation and the three confirmation criteria are then sought in the following day. The only exception is the long white candlestick. Any white candlestick following a SELL-IF alert makes the signal void and invalid.

The market looks strong on the short side as evidenced by recent price activity. If the SELL-IF is confirmed, new short selling may be considered.